Long-term body mass index changes in overweight and obese adults and the risk of heart failure, cardiovascular disease and mortality: a cohort study of over 260,000 adults in the UK

Abstract Background Although obesity is a well-recognised risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD), the impact of long-term body mass index (BMI) changes in overweight or obese adults, on heart failure, CVD and mortality has not been quantified. Methods This population-based cohort study used routine UK primary care electronic health data linked to secondary death-registry records. We identified adults who were obese, free from had repeated BMI measures. Using group-based trajectory modelling, we examined trajectories these individuals then determined incidence rates CVD, failure associated with different trajectories. Cox-proportional hazards regression ratios incident outcomes. Results 264,230 (mean age 49.5 years (SD 12.7) mean 33.8 kg/m 2 6.1)) followed-up median duration 10.9 years. Four identified, corresponding at baseline, World Health Organisation classifications overweight, class-1, class-2 class-3 respectively. In all four groups, there was small, stable upwards increase 1.06 (± 3.8)). Compared individuals, (HR) 3.26 (95% CI 2.98–3.57) HR 2.72 (2.58–2.87) all-cause 3.31 (2.84–3.86) CVD-related mortality, after adjusting baseline demographic factors. Conclusion The majority are retain their degree over long term. Individuals severe experience worst These findings highlight high toll exacted by continuing tackle obesity.